The Next Civil War: Dispatches From the American Future by Stephen Marche

Author:Stephen Marche [Marche, Stephen]
Language: eng
Format: mobi, azw3
Tags: His054000, Sociology, Future Studies, Social Science, American Government, Violence in Society, General, United States, Political Science, Social History, Security (National & International), History
ISBN: 9781982123215
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Published: 2022-01-04T00:00:00+00:00

The Precision of Climate Change Modeling

This book draws on all the best available models of the future—economic forecasts, agronomic projections, established battle plans, algorithms from political scientists, historical patterns from scholars of civil war, and so on. But the climate change models that follow are vastly more concrete and precise than anything else in this book. They don’t predict the future; they portray it. The first climate model appeared in 1967, created by Syukuro Manabe and Richard T. Wetherald, and it remains more or less completely accurate. They predicted that a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere would raise the temperature of the atmosphere by about 2°C. We have collectively increased CO2 in the atmosphere by 50 percent since the 1880s and the temperature has risen by nearly 1°C.

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